Intraday Outlooks For USD Index, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, Oil – SEB

The following are the intraday outlooks for USD Index, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and Brent Crude as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

USD Index: Short term downside risk. Given that we both are above the 91.63 resistance and May 2014 channel the correction risk should be substantial and especially so as we now also starting to see bearish divergences occurring in both hourly and daily graphs. Longs should stay prepared to take action when/if returning into the bull channel (91.62).

EUR/USD: Selling halted at the support line. So far the market has responded to the bottom line (between wave 1 and 3’s low points) by bouncing back above 1.18. At a very minimum the reaction should stretch out for 1.1845 even though there clearly is scope (see arguments in yday’s TA) for more. To maintain an immediate upside potential the pair cannot fall beneath 1.1780 (= a new low will then be set before a new reaction attempt will take place).

AUD/USD: More bullish pieces of evidence. After three days of indecision the market yesterday decided to go for the upside correction case and accordingly ended the day with the first positive candle this year. This morning the pair is also trading up above the Nov falling top line and the bullish divergence is as a result now very close to being confirmed. We hence repeat our recommendation that shorts should consider exiting (and even possible going long for a shorter period of time and especially so if ending this week above 0.8216).

Brent Crude: A 2nd “Doji”. The market seems more near-term directionally uncertain than earlier in the week and a move back over 51.91 could trigger some early protective buy-stops, thus open for extension towards the still steeply descending “TenkanSen”, now at 54.10.

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