The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/NZD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Still depressed, but also stretched. Of the two, trend takes precedence over the stretch and as long as there are no undoubted bullish hints, the downside remains in focus. A Dec-Jan ‘Equality point’ at 1.1851 is the closest attraction/support to keep in mind now when also the 2010 low of 1.1876 has been taken out. Local resistance also over the 8day ‘Tenkan-Sen’, now at 1.2035 is needed to show some kind of buyers’ initiative.
USD/JPY: Near-term downside risk. Yesterday’s bearish looking break below dynamic support at the high end of the short-term Fibo-adjsted ‘Cloud’ justifies near-term downside attention and focus on an attraction/support area at 117.70/30. Current intraday stretches are located at 118.00 & 119.75.
GBP/USD: A bounce becomes increasingly likely. A long-term ascending line of support was distinctly violated earlier this week and sellers dominate the field. Longs are not recommended but a near-term bounce higher has become increasingly likely (best seen through bullish price/momentum divergence in the intradailies). If such a bounce materializes, refs at 1.5198, 1.5274 should be remembered. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.5070 & 1.5225.
AUD/NZD: Time to consider taking profit. If our assumptions is right the cross is now putting the final pieces in place creating a possible bottom formation. Our long-term goal, 1.0380 has with the drop to 1.0393 basically been fulfilled. With a possible bull divergence forming, the support line from 1998 and a five wave sequence down from the 2011 top we now think it is time consider taking some profit on a short position.