Intraday Outlooks For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, SP500 – SEB

The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, GBP/USD , USD/CAD, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

EUR/USD: Rechecked the former channel floor. From a strict technical view (ignoring €CB) it looks like we yesterday ended a minor upside reaction and ended it with a rejection from just inside the June bear channel, hence validating the recent exit from it. So if following the textbook the pair should now trade lower (confirmed below 1.1540) tracing out a new trend low.


GBP/USD: Forming a bear triangle. Since the beginning of January the pair has paused at/around the 2010 support line, the lower boundary of a former multiyear triangle. The inability to lift off the support line doesn’t bode well for the pair so a break lower should take place any day now (the consolidation has also taken the shape of a bear triangle).


USD/CAD: Skyrocketing. With an unexpected help from BOC the pair went into orbit yesterday posting a net 228 points advance. In the bigger picture this is a part of a third wave acceleration (since the 2001 top line break) which primarily targets the 1.2884 – 1.3066 area (ultimately the 1.34-1.35 area will be reached within wave 5). Short term we know that there’s a strong tendency for markets to initially move higher after a benchmark candle but only to almost immediately falling back into the range of the benchmark candle digesting the move (and creating a new buying opportunity).


S&P500: Challenging trendline resistance. Near-term price action is bullishly tilted and resistance at a descending trendline (at market) is up to the test. A bullish print breaking this level would turn attention to the far more important 2,061 ref next. Support at 1,997 and the current intraday stretches are located at 2,004 & 2,044.


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