Intraday Forex Outlooks For USD Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Oil – SEB

The following are the intraday outlooks for USD Index, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and Brent Crude as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.

USD INDEX: Accelerating higher. Since the exit of the multiyear base formation (a copy paste one to the late 1980’s/early 1990’s one) the market has been on a positive footing. During October the Plaza accord top line (on a linear scale, dotted line) was broken which further enhanced the buying. We are now rapidly homing in on the same top line on a log scale basis (94.78) which will be the last obstacle before confirming the long term bull trend.

EUR/USD: Down in the major support zone. The unexpected (or rather premature given our long term target in the 1.07/11 area) break lower from the falling channel/wedge triggered a new round of impulsive selling, down into the 2012/2010 low area. So currently being in the key support zone (next key support if passed = 1.1640), outside both the 55 & 233d Bollinger bands and with a still persisting MACD divergence it wouldn’t be surprising to at least see a few days of congestion.

GBP/USD: Down at the 2009 support line. So far the market has responded to the 2009 support line by buying dips below it. It is however still to be seen whether we will end today above or below the trend line. The indications given by indicators such as MACD and stochastic however argues for an oversold and bullishly diverging market i.e. an increasing risk/potential for a corrective bounce.

BRENT CRUDE: Approaching the triangle target. The black gold continues to trade heavy (but in a rather choppy manner) with the 54.10 triangle target in the crosshair. The choppy decline since the exit from the bear triangle does help underpin our view of the market currently being in a fifth wave decline, the last part in the down phase.

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