Forex Analysis: Daily Forex Preview – 01 December 2014

Guest post by Yury Safronau at Orbex

Black Friday saw very choppy trading across the board as the US markets were open for a shortened trading session. With Friday also being the last trading day of the month, the choppiness was well expected with no significant shifts to the overall bias.

Eurozone CPI came in line with expectations with no major changes as the single currency is now starting to price in possible easing measures to be announced at the ECB’s press conference this week. Jens Weidmann speech saw the Euro rally briefly as yet again the speech was staunchly opposed to any form of sovereign purchases from the ECB. The Euro however failed to capitalize its gains as the EURUSD declined towards the latter part of the day.

Canada’s GDP managed to come in line with estimates but failed to help the currency much which was already pressured by falling oil prices.

Over the weekend, Swiss voters rejected the Gold referendum which would have sought to ban a sale on Gold assets from the SNB as well as increasing the Gold holdings to 20% of the total assets. The rejection of the vote saw the Gold futures open lower this week and could potentially set the stage for the SNB to not only maintain the EURCHF peg at 1.2 but also to introduce the much talked about negative deposit rates.

As the markets look to a new trading month, PMI data from across the regions are on the tap today with FOMC member Dudley’s speech scheduled later during the US trading session.

Fundamentals Recap – November 28, 2014

• Japan Household spending y/y -4% vs. -4.8%
• Tokyo Core CPI y/y 2.4% vs. 2.3%; National core CPI 2.9% as expected
• Japan unemployment rate 3.5% vs. 3.6%; retail sales 1.4% vs. 1.5%
• Australia ANZ business confidence 31.5 vs. 26.5 previously; private sector credited up 0.6% vs. 0.5% estimates
• German retail sales m/m beats estimates, rising 1.9% after declining -2.8% last month
• Eurozone flash CPI estimates y/y at 0.3% vs. 0.4% previously; core CPI unchanged at 0.7%
• Eurozone unemployment rate 11.5%
• Italy prelim CPI m/m declines -0.2% vs. -0.3% estimates
• Canada GDP m/m rises 0.4% as expected

Fundamentals – December 1 2014

• China manufacturing PMI 50.3 vs. 50.5
• HSBC Final manufacturing PMI 50 vs. 50 expectations
• Spanish manufacturing PMI to rise 53.1; Italian manufacturing PMI to modestly improve to 49.5;
• Eurozone final manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged at 50.4
• UK Manufacturing PMI to be soft at 53.1
• US ISM manufacturing PMI to be soft at 57.9
• Speech by FOMC member Dudley