Daily Forex Preview -15/12, Guest post by John Benjamen at Orbex

Guest post by John Benjamen at Orbex

The US Dollar Index closed the week on a bearish note after making a weekly high to 89.56. However, the gains in the spot fx markets were mixed with USDCAD continuing to post gains while EURUSD gaining close to 1.4% for the week. The USDCHF was weaker on a broad based demand for the Swiss Franc and the Yen. The dollar weakened despite a better than expected UoM consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Producer Price Index however disappointed, falling below forecasts.

The Euro gained on Friday after a lackluster TLTRO loans on Thursday. Continued fundamentals from the Eurozone have been disappointing with the Eurozone industrial production failing to make any headway. The quarterly unemployment change was also in line with estimates. The Euro single currency has however managed to ignore all the data and continued to push higher for the week.

The Australian and Kiwi dollar remained subdued after Friday saw comments from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens wanting to see the Aussie dollar near 75 cents to the US Dollar. China’s weak growth has also started to weigh in on the Aussie dollar. The Kiwi, which rallied earlier in the week paused for the remainder with Friday seeing the NZDUSD trim its post RBNZ interest rate led gains.

Over the week, Japan’s election results saw the ruling LDP party, led by incumbent Shinzo Abe gain victory with a majority in what is translated to as an approval of Abe’s policies. Economic data was however mixed which saw the Yen choppy during early Asian trade.

Fundamentals Recap – December 12, 2014

  • Japan revised industrial production m/m 0.4% vs. 0.2% forecast
  • China Industrial production y/y 7.2% vs. 7.6% forecast
  • German WPI m/m falls -0.7% vs. 0.3% forecasts
  • UK Construction output m/m falls -2.2% vs. 0.8% forecasts
  • Eurozone Industrial production m/m rises 0.1% vs. 0.2%
  • Eurozone quarterly employment change rises 0.2% as expected
  • US PPI m/m -0.2% vs. -0.1%; Core PPI m/m 0% vs. 0.1% forecasts
  • Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment rises 93.8 beating estimates; UoM inflation expectations rises 2.9%

Fundamentals – December 15, 2014

  • Japan, Tankan manufacturing index 12 vs. 13; Tankan non-manufacturing index 16 vs. 14
  • Australia new motor vehicle sales m/m -0.6%
  • German Bundesbank monthly report
  • UK CBI industrial orders expectations to remain unchanged at 3
  • US Empire state manufacturing index to rise 12.1
  • US Capacity utilization rate to rise to 79.4%
  • US Industrial production m/m to rise 0.8%
  • US NAHB housing market index to rise to 59

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